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The Commercial Real Estate Tsunami

September 8, 2020

A Survival Guide for Lenders, Owners, Buyers, and Brokers

It has been said that the four most dangerous words in the English language are, “ This time is different. ”There are several factors that make this downturn feel different. The most worrisome is the record amount of commercial mortgages coming due — a tsunami of debt — as we head deeper into the commercial real estate downturn. Combined with the weakest economic and fi nancial conditions in generations, this tsunami of debt threatens to derail a nascent economic recovery and hit the financial markets with asecond round of losses. This book arrives then as the commercial real estate  industry is staggering under the weight of debt amassed during a commercial real estate boom, not unlike the residential real estate boom - and - bust that has laid waste to the national, regional, and local economies. We are still in the earlier phases of this downturn — as Tony points out, the commercial real estate market was essentially running on fumes for most of 2008, and the plunge in prices at the heart of our current problems really only gathered momentum from late - 2008 into 2009. And by most accounts, this  drop in prices probably has further to go before hitting bottom. As Tony and the other contributors to this book point out, the real estate market has gone through boom / bust cycles before. So, while the severity of the issue is off the charts, there are defi nitely many features in common with previous cycles; moreover, there are mechanisms to deal with it — foreclosure and workouts to name a couple — that are clearly described herein. This book fi lls a void in our understanding of the causes of the crisis, and more importantly should help market participants — investors, developers, lenders, and brokers — get vitally needed perspective on where we might be going next and how we will get there. The commercial real estate downturn of the 1980s and 1990s and subsequent recovery provides us with hope that frozen markets can be unfrozen, as well as plenty of “ lessons learned ” that are every bit as applicable now as then.

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